Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes:Accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Fernandes, J.A., Cheung, W.W.L., Jennings, S., Butenschön, M., De Mora, L., Barange, M., Frölicher, T.L. and Grant, Alastair (2013) Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes:Accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Global Change Biology, 19 (8). pp. 2596-2607. ISSN 1354-1013

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Abstract

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: biological feedback,climate change,competition,ecosystem approach,fisheries management,model validation,modelling,size spectrum,species interactions
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
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Depositing User: Pure Connector
Date Deposited: 23 Oct 2013 21:06
Last Modified: 15 Nov 2018 14:33
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/43849
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12231

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