Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems

Gerten, Dieter, Lucht, Wolfgang, Ostberg, Sebastian, Heinke, Jens, Kowarsch, Martin, Kreft, Holger, Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W, Rastgooy, Johann, Warren, Rachel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0122-1599 and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (2013) Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). ISSN 1748-9326

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Abstract

This modelling study demonstrates at what level of global mean temperature rise (?Tg) regions will be exposed to significant decreases of freshwater availability and changes to terrestrial ecosystems. Projections are based on a new, consistent set of 152 climate scenarios (eight ?Tg trajectories reaching 1.5–5?° C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, each scaled with spatial patterns from 19 general circulation models). The results suggest that already at a ?Tg of 2?° C and mainly in the subtropics, higher water scarcity would occur in >50% out of the 19 climate scenarios. Substantial biogeochemical and vegetation structural changes would also occur at 2?° C, but mainly in subpolar and semiarid ecosystems. Other regions would be affected at higher ?Tg levels, with lower intensity or with lower confidence. In total, mean global warming levels of 2?° C, 3.5?° C and 5?° C are simulated to expose an additional 8%, 11% and 13% of the world population to new or aggravated water scarcity, respectively, with >50% confidence (while ~1.3 billion people already live in water-scarce regions). Concurrently, substantial habitat transformations would occur in biogeographic regions that contain 1% (in zones affected at 2?° C), 10% (3.5?° C) and 74% (5?° C) of present endemism-weighted vascular plant species, respectively. The results suggest nonlinear growth of impacts along with ?Tg and highlight regional disparities in impact magnitudes and critical ?Tg levels.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 6 - clean water and sanitation,sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 15 - life on land ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/clean_water_and_sanitation
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Depositing User:	Pure Connector
Date Deposited:	23 Oct 2013 12:24
Last Modified:	20 Mar 2023 12:36
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/43674
DOI:	10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034032

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