Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2 °C above pre-industrial levels

Joshi, M, Hawkins, E, Sutton, R, Lowe, J and Frame, D (2011) Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Nature Climate Change, 1 (8). pp. 407-412. ISSN 1758-678X

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Abstract

Climate change projections are usually presented as 'snapshots' of change at a particular time in the future. Instead, we consider the key question 'when will specific temperature thresholds be exceeded?' Framing the question as 'when might something happen (either permanently or temporarily)?' rather than 'what might happen?' demonstrates that lowering future emissions will delay the crossing of temperature thresholds and buy valuable time for planning adaptation. For example, in higher greenhouse-gas emission scenarios, a global average 2 °C warming threshold is likely to be crossed by 2060, whereas in a lower emissions scenario, the crossing of this threshold is delayed by up to several decades. On regional scales, however, the 2 °C threshold will probably be exceeded over large parts of Eurasia, North Africa and Canada by 2040 if emissions continue to increase — well within the lifetime of many people living now.

Item Type: Article
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia > Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
University of East Anglia > Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia > Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Volcanoes@UEA
University of East Anglia > Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Marine and Atmospheric Sciences
University of East Anglia > Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Meteorology, Oceanography and Climate Dynamics
University of East Anglia > Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climate, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
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Depositing User: Rhiannon Harvey
Date Deposited: 01 Feb 2012 10:55
Last Modified: 25 Jul 2018 03:39
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/36697
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1261

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