Trends in recent temperature and radial tree growth spanning 2000 years across northwest Eurasia

Briffa, KR, Shishov, VV, Melvin, TM, Vaganov, EA, Grudd, H, Hantemirov, RM, Eronen, M and Naurzbaev, MM (2008) Trends in recent temperature and radial tree growth spanning 2000 years across northwest Eurasia. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 363 (1501). pp. 2269-2282. ISSN 0962-8436

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Abstract

This paper describes variability in trends of annual tree growth at several locations in the high latitudes of Eurasia, providing a wide regional comparison over a 2000-year period. The study focuses on the nature of local and widespread tree-growth responses to recent warming seen in instrumental observations, available in northern regions for periods ranging from decades to a century. Instrumental temperature data demonstrate differences in seasonal scale of Eurasian warming and the complexity and spatial diversity of tree-growing-season trends in recent decades. A set of long tree-ring chronologies provides empirical evidence of association between inter-annual tree growth and local, primarily summer, temperature variability at each location. These data show no evidence of a recent breakdown in this association as has been found at other high-latitude Northern Hemisphere locations. Using Kendall's concordance, we quantify the time-dependent relationship between growth trends of the long chronologies as a group. This provides strong evidence that the extent of recent widespread warming across northwest Eurasia, with respect to 100- to 200-year trends, is unprecedented in the last 2000 years. An equivalent analysis of simulated temperatures using the HadCM3 model fails to show a similar increase in concordance expected as a consequence of anthropogenic forcing.

Item Type: Article
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > Climatic Research Unit
Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited: 11 Apr 2011 13:49
Last Modified: 12 Sep 2018 14:30
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/28805
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2007.2199

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