Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr

Livina, VN, Kwasniok, F and Lenton, TM (2009) Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr. Climate of the Past Discussions, 5 (5). pp. 2223-2237. ISSN 1814-9359

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Abstract

We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23-19 kyr BP. This bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In data spanning the last glacial termination, up to four climate states are detected, plausibly representing the LGM, Bolling-Allerod, Younger Dryas, and the Holocene. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations.

Item Type: Article
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
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Depositing User: Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited: 23 Feb 2011 10:29
Last Modified: 19 Apr 2019 00:49
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/24270
DOI:

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